The Patriots signed the former NFL MVP to a one-year deal on Sunday as their replacement for Tom Brady, who brought a two-decade spell in New England to an end in March when he signed for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a free agent.
While there are significant question marks over Newton’s fitness, the bookmakers believe the former Carolina Panthers quarterback could thrive under Bill Belichick. Caesar Sportsbook in Las Vegas cut the Patriots from 10/1 to 9/1 favorites to win the AFC and from 25/1 outsiders to 20/1 shot to win a seventh Super Bowl.
The Kansas City Chiefs, the reigning Super Bowl LIV winners, and the Baltimore Ravens remain the favorite to win the AFC at 3/1 and 17/5 respectively and both head the race for Super Bowl, with the Chiefs at 13/2 and the Ravens at 7/1.
The San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 10/1, 13/1 and 15/1 respectively to lift the Lombardi Trophy, with the Dallas Cowboys and the Patriots now 20/1.
Bookmakers have been highly skeptical of the Patriots’ chances of success after losing Brady and in April Caesars listed New England’s opening win total at 8.5, the lowest since 2003. William Hill and DraftKings were similarly cautious, putting the six-time Super Bowl winners at nine and 9.5 wins respectively.
Newton’s arrival, however, could drastically change that scenario. The 31-year-old will have to prove his fitness—he missed the last two games of the 2018 season with a shoulder injury and was shut down after two weeks last season after suffering a Lisfranc fracture—he remains one of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the league when fully fit.
According to ESPN, Newton was passed fit at a physical in Atlanta, Georgia, on March 23 which was organized by the Panthers before they ended their nine-year relationship with the quarterback a day later.
In Carolina, Newton was named MVP in 2015, when he recorded 45 total touchdowns in the regular season and helped Carolina to reach the Super Bowl, which they eventually lost to the Denver Broncos.
Since the Panthers selected him with the first overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the former Auburn alumnus has passed for 29,041 yards with 182 touchdowns and has added 4,806 rushing yards and 58 scores on the ground.
Despite his resume, however, Newton may not be guaranteed a starting spot in New England, with Belichick previously suggesting the franchise was happy with 2019 fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham and 11-year veteran Bryan Hoyer as its main options under centre.
At the same time, signing the former MVP to a one-year deal could be a win-win situation for both parties. The Patriots have potentially added a game-changer to their offense at minimal cost—ESPN reported the deal is incentive-laden—while Newton gets the chance to prove he’s fully recovered from his injuries and gets the chance to impress one of the best head coaches in the league.
Belichick has previously spoken glowingly of his new quarterback.
“When you’re talking about mobile quarterbacks, guys that are tough to handle, tackle, can throw, run, make good decisions—I mean, I would put Newton at the top the list,” he said before the Patriots played the Panthers in 2017.
“He makes good decisions, he can run, he’s strong, he’s hard to tackle. He can do a lot of different things, beat you in a lot of different ways.”
