Welcome to The Making of the President 1993. The campaign kicks off on Capitol Hill Wednesday evening, when Clinton delivers what aides tout as a blockbuster speech outlining the plan to deliver on his sweeping campaign promises: jobs, economic growth, deficit reduction and health care. To sell the program, the Clinton administration is converting its formidable campaign arsenal to peacetime use. The objective is no longer 270 electoral votes, but 218 in the House of Representatives and at least 50 in the Senate. The White House will try to build a winning coalition inside and beyond the Beltway with a new wave of batch faxes, satellite feeds, rapidresponse surrogates and town meetings.
The sales job could begin with an unusual flourish. NEWSWEEK has learned that Clinton may return to Capitol Hill after his speech (perhaps as early as Thursday) to take questions from members in the style of the British prime minister’s “Question Time.” After this teledemocratic fusion of Oprah Winfrey and John Major, he will mount a campaign-size travel schedule. Cabinet members will fan out to work local television and talk radio. “It will be a fullscale assault,” says one aide.
Campaign ‘93 is Clinton’s way of preparing the public for a series of mostly unhappy choices. His proposed program, which would trim $145 billion from the projected budget deficit by 1997, is a painful regimen of spending cuts and tax increases that will touch virtually every American. “This is the biggest reordering of priorities since Roosevelt,” says one top aide. One item it will not include is the middle-class tax relief Clinton promised during his campaign. Last week in Michigan, he once again justified the backpedal by arguing that the projected deficit was actually $50 billion larger than he was led to believe as a candidate. That claim simply isn’t true. By last August the Congressional Budget Office was publishing revised projections of the mushrooming debt.
At the White House last week the euphemism of choice for hitting up the middle class was the “ladder of contribution.” The term conjures an image of modest, broadbased and patriotic sacrifice in the name of economic renewal. Actually, most of the pain is targeted at the rich. Two thirds of the $75 billion in proposed new tax revenues would come from corporate profits and wealthy individuals. The package will include a top income-tax rate of 36 percent (or possibly 38 percent) for families with incomes more than $200,000. And, NEWSWEEK has learned, Clinton will propose a 10 percent surcharge on all income more than $500,000. He will also seek a new corporatetax rate of 36 percent (up from 34 percent) and caps on the deductibility of executive compensation. Business-entertainment expenses would be hit as well-half would be taxed instead of the present one fifth. The main elements of the package:
The campaign to sell the package has already begun. Speechwriter and political adviser Paul Begala returned two weeks ago to coordinate the communications strategy. Media consultant Mandy Grunwald and polltaker Stan Greenburg are also back on board, meeting daily with White House staff, and frequently with Clinton. The opening strokes came last week with the Detroit town hall, a speech to top CEOs previewing his menu of tax increases and an announcement of White House staff cuts. The trims were modest and politically painless (most were Bush-era hires), but sent the message that before asking others to sacrifice, Clinton was willing to put his own house in order. “The budget weenies pooh-poohed this, but they just don’t get it. Clinton did,” says a senior adviser.
One strategic key will be building a coalition broad enough to keep the package from being cannibalized by interest groups. One reason Ronald Reagan’s historic 1981 economic program passed Congress was that Republicans were able to confine the action to a few all-encompassing, up-or-down votes. Reagan had an easy task: he was pushing tax cuts and a military buildup. Pain and sacrifice aren’t quite as easy a sell. For that reason, Clinton is investing in large amounts of face time with Hill Democrats. By Wednesday he will have invited every Democratic House member to the White House. The visits allow Clinton to make his case personally-and give members a chance to brag to constituents that the president made a personal appeal for their help.
Clintonites believe this is one of those rare moments in history when politics and policy dovetail. More than ever, voters seem to appreciate straight talk. A Raleigh, N.C., “dial group,” orchestrated by Greenburg to watch the Detroit town hall, spiked to 83 (100 is the strongest approval rating) when Clinton said a “read my lips” promise not to raise taxes was irresponsible. “If the message of the last campaign was ’treat us like adults,’ we need to send an economic program to the Hill that does that,” says an aide. There is a political prize for Clinton if he delivers: 19 million Ross Perot voters fed up with what their man called the “Lawrence Welk music” of conventional politics. “If he wins over even half of them,” says GOP pollster Frank Luntz, “the Democrats will rule into the next century.”
Clinton’s first weeks have raised doubts about both his political savvy and ability to deliver on the promise of his campaign. It’s always dangerous to declare any presidential speech make or break, especially one from a president who has been on the job for only a month. But this week he has a chance to set a defining tone for his young administration. Falling short won’t break him, but delivering will make it easier to wash away the lingering images of an inauspicious start.
Funding for Head Start, nutrition programs: $5 billion. Highways, electronic infrastructure: $10 billion.
Total Cost: $15 billion
REVENUES:
10 percent investmetn tax credit for new-plant and equipment spending. 50 percent cut in capital-gains tax for 5-year investmetn in start-up businesses.
Total Cost: $15 billion
Defenses cuts: $40 billion by 1997. Cuts in federal bureaucracy, fewer perks: $3 billion. Caps on entitlement and federal pension cost-of-living increases: $10 billion. Health-care reform: $10 billion. Government subsidies: $20 billion.
Total Savings: $75 billion
REVENUES:
Increased taxes for top individual earners: $22 billion. New corporate taxes: $17 billion. Middle-class tax hike: $25 billion. Others.
Total: $75 billion
