When Hillary Clinton arrived in Pennsylvania earlier this month, she enjoyed every conceivable advantage: family roots in Scranton; frequent visits as First Lady; a political topography dominated by her older, whiter working-class supporters; and a pair of informal advisers, James Carville and Paul Begala, who’d run winning Keystone State campaigns in the past. As a result, she trounced Barack Obama by 20 points in poll after poll. But a funny thing happened on the way to the inevitable. During the first week of April, Obama closed the gap: first, SurveyUSA showed a gain of seven points; next came Quinnipiac with three; a five-point leap followed, courtesy of Rasmussen; and PPP finished the flurry with Obama up a full 28 percent on its previous poll. Whatever the reason–the Casey endorsement, Obama’s low-key bus tour, loony pollsters–Clinton’s average edge had plummeted to six points, and supporters started to worry about whether she could win Pennsylvania at all.

Now it’s Obamaniacs who are shaking in their boots. The source of stress? A pair of North Carolina polls that show Clinton slashing the Illinois senator’s initial lead–a “Clinton in the Keystone State”-esque 15 to 20 points earlier this month–in half. On paper, the Tar Heel State is nearly as Obama-friendly as Pennsylvania was not; he boasts the majority of Congressional endorsements, and the state’s Democratic electorate–38 percent black and rich in college kids studying in Raleigh-Durham, Charlotte and Chapel Hill–fits him to a demographic “t.” Regardless, Obama’s support seems to be slipping. A SurveyUSA poll taken immediately before Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary pegged his lead nine points (50-41); a week later, the firm now says Obama’s advantage has shrunk to a measly five (49-44). Meanwhile, the latest PPP poll gives Obama a 12 point edge–not too shabby, unless you consider that he led by a whopping 25 on April 21 (and that PPP vastly overstated his support in Pennsylvania). Why the polling plunge? White voters. The chatter over Obama’s failure to “seal the deal” with blue-collar Caucasians in Pennsylvania–combined with Clinton’s aggressive efforts to woo them in North Carolina (see new ad above)–seems to have had an impact: in the PPP poll, the former First Lady’s lead among white voters surged after her Pennsylvania win from five to 21 points, while Survey USA shows her edge expanding from 23 to 31 points over the same period.

Will Clinton win North Carolina? Almost certainly not; Obama still holds an average local lead of 10.3 percent, and other post-Pennsylvania polls haven’t found similar slippage. But as with its neighbor to the north, the Tar Heel state could pivot on expectations rather than raw numbers. If on May 6 Clinton can harness her white, working-class support to win in demographically-neutral Indiana, where new polls show her ahead by eight or nine points, and come closer than expected in North Carolina–and remember, the latest surveys don’t reflect the reemergence of Rev. Wright–the media’s obsession with Obama’s “Bubba Gap” (in the words of some rag named Newsweek) will only intensify. In the end, doubts about the senator’s electability may not sway superdelegates; if Obama can maintain his pledged-delegate and popular vote lead, he’ll almost surely emerge with the nomination in August. But limping across the finish line with string of likely losses–West Virgina, Kentucky, Puerto Rico–and a rising chorus of naysayers isn’t the strongest way to start a general-election battle against the formidable John McCain.

May we therefore recommend that for his next meal the senator douse some pulled pork in Texas Pete hot sauce, slap it between two Krispy Kreme donuts and wash the whole thing down with a big gulp of Cheerwine. Giddy up.