When Carter announced in 1975 that he was running for president, voters in the North found his speech patterns jarring. When North Carolina Sen. John Edwards announced his candidacy Thursday morning on the “Today” show, his strong Southern accent was music to the ears of Democrats. Since the rise of the Republican Party in the South, the only way a Democrat can crack the GOP lock on the region is by being a favorite son. Edwards can claim favorite-son status in two Southern states: South Carolina, where he was born, and North Carolina, where he unseated an incumbent Republican senator, Lauch Faircloth, in 1998 after building his name as a successful trial lawyer.
This week’s announcement by Edwards marks the beginning of a one-year dash among Democrats for money and organization before the primary contests begin. The rush toward the presidency increases the likelihood for legislative gridlock and makes it harder for leaders in both parties to strike the necessary compromises. Edwards is the second U.S. senator to make his candidacy official, after John Kerry, but enough others are waiting in the wings that the collective impact of so much individual ambition could hamper Congress’ ability to perform. Presidential go-aheads are expected shortly from Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, recently retired House leader Dick Gephardt, Senate leader Tom Daschle, and maybe even Florida Sen. Bob Graham.
The Republican side has their candidate for ‘04, but there’s no lack of presidential intrigue. The new GOP Senate leader, Tennessee’s Bill Frist, is regarded as his party’s front runner for ‘08. He’ll be mindful of his political future as he maneuvers against a Democratic caucus led by a probable contender for ‘04 and which harbors additional rivals among key senators. Edwards is staking his claim on his ability to connect with his audience, a skill he honed in the courtroom with jurors. Watching his warm and fuzzy appearance with “Today” host Matt Lauer, a Democratic Party official said, “You’d think he was running for father of the year, not president of the United States.”
There’s a shakedown period in any new Congress, and it’s complicated by a Democratic leader in the running, an administration fixated on re-electing Bush in ‘04 and a Republican leader who can’t be seen as a wholly owned subsidiary of the White House, even though he is. The potential for political maneuvering is like a Rubik’s Cube with limitless possibilities, along with unending frustration. In any Congress, the window for serious legislating is open for only the first six months. You can’t introduce new subjects after that, short of a crisis. Bush is expected to unveil his economic recovery plan next week when Congress returns, and it will feature the GOP’s remedy for everything: tax cuts. There’s no surprise there, but Bush is likely to include some payroll-tax relief, which is a Democratic idea, and which until recently had been dismissed by Republicans.
Stealing ideas from Democrats is smart policy for Bush as he moves toward the center for his reelection. On taxes, it gives him a fig leaf for a package otherwise designed to reward high earners. Democrats learned in the November election that unless they make sharp distinctions with the White House, voters don’t see any difference between the parties, and they’ll stick with the commander in chief. A classic example is Iraq policy: Republicans want to go to war; Democrats are willing to go to war. Maybe Daschle thinks that by running, he can make it up to those Democrats who fault him for the absence of a unifying message in last year’s election. It’s hard to find anybody in Washington encouraging Daschle, a soft-spoken figure who doesn’t command the stage and who couldn’t hold the Senate. Why would he embark on what to most seem a fool’s errand? “The only encouragement they need is from the guy they see in the mirror; these guys come with a soundtrack that plays, ‘Hail to the Chief’,” says a veteran lobbyist. “Every new senator feels humbled at first and wonders how he got there. A few years later, he looks around and wonders how all those other jerks got there.”
If you’ve made it to one of a hundred in the Senate, it’s not that great a leap to think you could be president even though nobody has gone directly to the White House from Congress since John F. Kennedy in 1960.
There’s only so much oxygen in any room, and if leader Daschle is running, it will be hard for him to bring cohesion to the Democratic message when everything he does will be suspect. To his Democratic rivals, he’s the enemy within. If he’s serious about the presidency, he will have to step down, a Catch-22 for Daschle because his leadership job is the perch that gives him a profile and makes him a fund-raising draw. Otherwise, he’s an unknown from a state that has three electoral votes and is best known for George McGovern’s failed presidential bids. And one more thing: that South Dakota twang won’t do Daschle a bit of good.
