But midterm congressional elections are about domestic issues, which is why Bush’s high approval rating doesn’t help Republicans running for re-election. The number that will impact the November races is the one that probes voter attitudes about the state of the country. Is the country on the right track or the wrong track?
Immediately after September 11, 70 percent of Americans thought the right track, reflecting an upsurge of commitment and community as the nation rallied to meet the terrorist threat. With time, that percentage drifted down to more realistic levels, but it was always a source of solace at the White House. Like a doctor looking at a patient’s electrocardiogram, aides found reassurance when the “right track” number stayed steady. Now, Republicans check the numbers with the same trepidation voters view their 401(k) statements. In the past three weeks, the right track hemorrhaged 15 points, and for the first time since 9-11, the percentage of people saying the country is on the wrong track is higher.
Nervousness about the economy, anger at the corporate executives who wrongly enriched themselves and dissatisfaction with the government’s response provoked the change in mood. And the worst may not be over. Here’s a trivia question: Where was the stock market when Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned of “irrational exuberance?” It was at 6,400, some 2,000 points lower than it is today, when Greenspan first signaled his concern about a pandemic of overrated stocks. Wall Street didn’t listen to him then, and didn’t react positively this week either when Greenspan insisted in his congressional testimony that the recovery was perking along. The market continued its downward slide.
Heading into the fall election, Republicans are in a defensive crouch. The wiser among them have concluded that going along with the Democrats on corporate reform is the safest course politically. If that means getting tougher than Bush might like, so be it. Speaker Hastert’s press secretary, John Feehery, captured the mood with a bit of dark humor. “We’re awaiting an amendment calling for the summary execution of all CEOs,” he joked. “It should pass overwhelmingly.” Republicans will play games where they can, looking out for corporate interests when the spotlight recedes and it’s not so obvious to the average voter. Democrats are bought and paid for, too, which is why reformers couldn’t get a vote in the Democratic-led Senate on the expensing of stock options, the loophole that is at the core of many of the recent scandals.
Democrats are more bullish now about regaining control of the House than they have been at any time since 9-11. Polls show voters think the GOP is too closely aligned with business interests, and the White House has not yet shown that it has a credible plan to restore confidence in the market. “They’re chasing a parade, and they’re behind the elephants,” says a Democratic House investigator. Bush’s proposals to crack down on corporate America stresses criminal penalties for executives who knowingly commit fraud and mislead the public, but getting those convictions won’t be easy. The skill of white-collar criminal lawyers should never be underestimated.
For Democrats, the challenge is to convey to Americans their description of the Bush administration as a wholly owned subsidiary of corporate America without seeming overtly partisan. Reminding people about how Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill reacted when Enron went belly-up is fair game. O’Neill said that companies come and go; that’s “the genius of capitalism.” Democrats will also ask why Vice President Dick Cheney won’t take any questions about his role at Halliburton, the company he headed for five years. Giving Cheney a pass because Halliburton is under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission won’t wash now that Bush has politicized the issue by saying that he expects the SEC to clear Cheney. With a little prodding from the press and Democrats, Bush might step forward and do his part by releasing documents related to his role at Harken Energy and clarifying who the generous soul was who bought his stock when it was such a bad buy.
Republicans have the war; Democrats have the economy. It’s a fair trade, and each party is looking ahead to 2004 for ways to capitalize on its strength and neutralize its weakness. The GOP is likely to hold its presidential nominating convention in New York, the city where the emotional hold of the war on terrorism is the greatest and where Bush could comfortably put patriotic themes front and center and be guaranteed a grateful audience. Democrats have New York on their short list too, but seem to be tending toward Boston, the political base of the Kennedy clan. Sen. Ted Kennedy is 70 years old, and third in seniority in the Senate after Strom Thurmond, 98, who is retiring, and Robert Byrd of West Virginia, who is 82. In their company, Kennedy is a mere youth. Thurmond was elected to the House in 1932, the year Kennedy was born.
It’s time for the Democrats to pay homage to Kennedy for his long legislative service. There isn’t a social welfare, education bill or civil-rights bill of any consequence that doesn’t bear Kennedy’s imprint. Even his political enemies regard him as the most able legislator in the Senate.
Some Democrats are squeamish about holding the party’s convention in the most liberal state in the union, but the benefits seem to outweigh the negatives. Honoring Kennedy and his 30-year career in the Senate as a champion of legislation expanding opportunities for Americans not as fortunate as he and his family would reinforce the party’s focus on domestic priorities. The alternative would be to compete in New York with the Republicans, a contest the Democrats could not win. Let Bush have the war; Democrats are finding their footing at home.
