Pick a movie, and the odds are some critics’ group has named it best picture. “Far From Heaven” won in New York, “About Schmidt” won in L.A., the National Society of Film Critics chose “The Pianist” and the National Board of Review crowned “The Hours.” But there’s a good chance the ultimate Oscar winner will be none of the above.
In many recent years, prognosticators were hard put to think of five Hollywood movies good enough to even compete for a nomination. But with the best crop of holiday movies in memory, this year offers a wealth of possibilities. It’s almost as if the first 11 months of the year don’t count. The prestige movie of early 2002, “Road to Perdition” (an Oscar-mongering movie if ever there was one), hasn’t even shown up on most 10-best lists.
Since the Best Picture race is so murky, let’s start our fearless forecasts with one of the easier categories.
BEST ACTOR
Three of the five nominees seem to me virtual certainties: Jack Nicholson in “About Schmidt,” Daniel Day-Lewis in “Gangs of New York” and Michael Caine in “The Quiet American.” Then it gets harder to suss out. My guess is the fourth slot goes to Adrien Brody in Polanski’s Holocaust drama, “The Pianist,” but he could be hurt by the reactive nature of his role. Rounding out the list will be either Nicolas Cage for his double turn in “Adaptation” or newcomer Derek Luke in “Antwone Fisher” (the Academy has a tradition of recognizing first-time performances). You can’t entirely rule out Leonardo DiCaprio’s quicksilver performance in “Catch Me If You Can,” or–if it is seen by enough voters–Campbell Scott’s bravura turn as a womanizing lout in “Roger Dodger.” Longer shots are Tom Hanks in “Road to Perdition,” Al Pacino in “Insomnia” (victim of its early-in-the-year release) and Greg Kinnear in “Auto Focus.” As for the much-heralded screen debut of Eminem in “8 Mile,” don’t hold your breath. The actors’ branch of the Academy–who do the nominating–aren’t quite ready to honor a rapper.
BEST ACTRESS
Here again there are some pretty easy calls. Julianne Moore in “Far From Heaven” is a safe bet. Even safer is Nicole Kidman in “The Hours.” Having lost last year for “Moulin Rouge” and returned with a performance that redefines the way everyone thinks of her, she’s probably the front runner for the Oscar. Thanks to her wins in influential critics groups, Diane Lane seems a near certainty for her dazzling turn in “Unfaithful,” and the fourth position will probably go to Meryl Streep in “The Hours.” I give “Chicago’s” Renee Zellweger a slight edge over Selma Hayak in “Frida” in a tight battle for the fifth nomination. The dark horses here are all from independent movies: Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Secretary,” Jennifer Aniston in “The Good Girl” and Nia Vardalos in “My Big Fat Greek Wedding,” the Cinderella actress in a Cinderella role.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Put your money on Chris Cooper in “Adaptation.” Usually typecast in quiet, stolid parts, he showed everyone how many colors he had in his repertoire. Another Chris–Walken–seems a good bet for his riveting performance as DiCaprio’s dad in “Catch Me If You Can.” For months it’s been predicted that Paul Newman will get a nod for “Road to Perdition.” There’s a lot of competition for the last two slots: Dennis Quaid in “Far from Heaven,” Ed Harris in “The Hours” and the ubiquitous John C. Reilly, who seemed to be in every movie this year but is most likely to be recognized for his song and dance number in “Chicago.” And don’t rule out old pro Alan Arkin in “13 Conversations About One Thing” (if enough actors see the tape) or Alfred Molina as Diego Rivera in “Frida” or, finally, Ray Liotta’s ferocious performance as a cop in “Narc.” It’s a strong category this year, and the final list could surprise. What about Stephen Dillane as Leonard Woolf in “The Hours”?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The fascinating possibility here is that both Meryl Streep and Julianne Moore could get two nominations in one year, for their supporting work in “Adaptation” and “The Hours.” (Never mind that Moore is as much a lead as Kidman or Streep: Paramount, not wanting her to compete with herself for Best Actress, is tactically pushing her for supporting. There’s no rule about this, however, and the voters can judge for themselves which category she belongs in.) The odds are good for both of them, but the for-sure nominees are probably Kathy Bates in “About Schmidt” and Catherine Zeta-Jones in “Chicago.” The L.A. critics gave their award to Edie Falco in “Sunshine State,” but how many actors have seen the John Sayles movie? And both the New York critics and the National Society honored Patricia Clarkson for “Far From Heaven” (which may have been a vote for the body of her work as much as this one role), but she’s more of a long shot for an Oscar nod. The other names you hear bandied about are Michelle Pfeiffer in “White Oleander” (though the movie was a huge flop), Toni Colette in both “About a Boy” and “The Hours,” Cameron Diaz in “Gangs of New York” and Miranda Richardson for her multiple role in David Cronenberg’s little-seen “Spider.” In this category, someone could pop up entirely out of the blue, like Tovah Feldshuh in “Kissing Jessica Stein.”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
There’s been much debate about whether “Adaptation” should be considered an adaptation or an original screenplay (it’s both really) but the Writers Guild has deemed it belongs in this category since it is at least in part based on “The Orchid Thief.” It will certainly be nominated, as will another largely original script, “About Schmidt,” which bears only superficial resemblance to the Louis Begley novel. David Hare’s screenplay for “The Hours” is a shoo-in, and “Chicago” certainly has a chance, as does “The Pianist.” Running just behind this pack are “The Quiet American,” “Road to Perdition,” “Catch Me If You Can” and “About a Boy.” A longer shot is “The Two Towers.”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This category should be fascinating to watch. The pickings are so slim that you might see, for the first time, two Spanish-language movies nominated by the writers’ branch: Pedro Almodovar’s “Talk to Her” and Alfonso Cuaron’s “Y Tu Mama Tambien.” Among the American movies, “Far From Heaven” seems a sure bet. “Antwone Fisher” has a good shot, though its screenplay is its weakest aspect. If “Gangs of New York” is eligible (again there’s debate about whether it’s an original or not), it could slip in. “Punch-Drunk Love” may have its best shot at a nomination from the writers, and two indie hits, “One Hour Photo” and “The Good Girl,” are remote possibilities. A more mainstream contender is “Signs,” which Disney is strongly pushing, though it’s not a genre that the writers tend to acknowledge at the Oscars. A deserving, but very dark horse, is “Monsoon Wedding.” Another longshot here is “Changing Lanes.”
BEST DIRECTOR
The five best directors almost never match up exactly with the five Best Picture nominees. The directors’ branch tends to be a bit more adventurous than the academy at large, often nominating foreign filmmakers. Here, as in the screenplay category, Almodovar and Cuaron are in the running, though long shots. Will the directors honor the fugitive Roman Polanski, who, if he should win for “The Pianist,” won’t be able to pick up his award? I say they do. I suspect they will also give the nod to Stephen Daldry for “The Hours” and newcomer Rob Marshall for “Chicago.” Martin Scorsese, who has never won an Oscar, probably has a slightly better chance of a directing nod than “Gangs of New York” has for Best Picture. Will Peter Jackson get a second “Lord of the Rings” nomination, or will his colleagues wait for the final installment to renominate him (and finally give him the bald golden guy)? Then there are the three “outsiders” in contention: Spike Jonze (“Adaptation”), Alexander Payne (“About Schmidt”) and Todd Haynes (“Far From Heaven”). One of them is sure to be on the list–but which? (My guess is Jonze.) If there’s a surprise nominee lurking in the wings it’s Philip Noyce, who revitalized his career with the double whammy of “The Quiet American” and “Rabbit-Proof Fence.”
BEST PICTURE
OK. I’ve put this one off as long as I can. There are at least 10 movies that have a plausible chance of making the final five, and I keep changing my mind about which they’ll be. I’m almost certain one will be “Chicago,” if stories of wildly enthusiastic Academy screenings are true (and I think they are). “The Hours,” with its A-list pedigree, also seems a reasonably good bet. I also suspect that “The Pianist,” considered a long shot by many, will make the final five. And that leaves “Gangs of New York,” “The Two Towers,” “About Schmidt,” “Antwone Fisher,” “Far From Heaven” and “Adaptation” in a neck-and-neck battle for the remaining slots, with potential spoilers “Road to Perdition,” “Catch Me if You Can,” “Y Tu Mama Tambien” and “The Quiet American” bringing up the rear. The fact that Denzel Washington’s debut film as a director makes people cry gives it a strong shot, and the sheer size and ambition of Scorsese’s epic may put it in the money. But don’t rule out “Adaptation”: this is a movie about the agonies of writing a movie, and that just may speak to the Academy members.
In any event, there hasn’t been a Best Picture contest this hotly and heavily contested in many years. Bettors beware.
