But it’s still early. Store owners know that sales on the first holiday weekend are not always indicative of the rest of the season. Last year started strong but then slowed, with sales growing just 2.2 percent over the year before–the weakest performance in more than a decade.
Still, the retailers have high hopes for this season. The National Retail Federation expects a 5.7 percent jump this year, with estimated revenues of $217.4 billion. That would be the largest increase in four years. But not everyone is so confident. The consulting firm Retail Forward forecasts just a modest improvement over last year with a sales increase of 4 percent or less. According to its surveys, more consumers say they expect to pay less than more this season compared to last–a trend noted earlier by the Conference Board, which predicted U.S. households on average would spend $455 on gifts this year (5 percent less than in 2002). NEWSWEEK’s Jennifer Barrett asked Pamela Klaffke, author of the new book, “Spree: A Cultural History of Shopping” (Arsenal Pulp Press) to make sense of the numbers, and got her predictions–and tips–for this holiday shopping season . Excerpts:
NEWSWEEK: The National Retail Federation predicts total holiday sales will rise 5.7 percent this season compared to last, while the Conference Board says U.S. households are expected to spend less on gifts this year. What do you think?
Pamela Klaffke: With all these statistics, everyone wants to put the spin on it that’s to their advantage. It becomes difficult for the consumer because they see the numbers and hear the sound bites but they don’t get to see the raw copy behind it. The prediction is that spending will be up, and sales were up about 5.4 percent on Thanksgiving weekend compared to last year.
That’s a good start.
It is a good start, but this is just the very beginning of the marathon shopping season. Still, when you look at larger factors like the economy, you don’t have to be an economist or brainiac to realize that things should be a bit better this year. People have some high hopes for the retail sector this season.
Retailers must be more optimistic–they aren’t offering the same deep discounts as last year.
True, but that doesn’t mean they won’t do it later. If the merchandise is not flying off the shelves, you can be sure we will see deeper discounts in the next few weeks.
Do you think consumers are becoming more savvy about shopping?
We are really polarized that way. Some are and some aren’t. There are consumers who see only discount and convenience and don’t care to see beyond that; they sign up for a [store’s] rewards coupon and then they are rewarded with all sorts of spam. Consumers should be aware that their information can be bought and sold. We have to ask questions. If someone asks for your zip code at checkout, ask them why. They are not going to not let you buy something if you say no. You have a right to ask why and to say no. It’s becoming extra important for individuals to educate themselves.
A lot of people seem to be looking for discounts. The world’s largest discount retailer, Wal-Mart, reported record sales on the day after Thanksgiving.
Its kind of funny because everyone wants convenience and yet they also want the bargain–and to get the two makes some people crazy. Coupons had really been left for dead in the late 1980s and 1990s and then they were totally resurrected thanks in part to the Internet, with those coupon sites that let you download coupons and then bring them to stores. There is now a whole coupon culture. Getting a bargain is a real high for some people.
You probably heard about the woman who was knocked unconscious by that mob of shoppers rushing for a sale on DVD players at a Wal-Mart Supercenter in Florida.
For some people, when it comes to finding discounts, it becomes like a sport–and sometimes an ugly one. It can be one of the only times I’ve seen women get extremely aggressive. But for the little bit of money you save, it’s not worth it. I’ve seen people drive all over town comparison shopping. I want to ask them: how much gas did you use up and how much time did you spend finding that bargain?
Can it become an addiction?
The rise in compulsive shopping is quite alarming. Some people buy things only because it is such a good deal. People need to temper that. Before you buy, stop and think, do you really need it? I don’t buy something unless I have a real visceral reaction. I don’t buy it because of my friends or because it’s inexpensive. I buy it because I love it and I will wear it.
When you’re buying for someone else, is it better to just give cash or a gift card?
Gift cards will be really big this year. It’s the gift certificate made super easy. This is the best thing for men ever. If they want to give their wife lingerie at Victoria’s Secret, but don’t want to hang around lurking at the store, they can just grab the gift card and run. Still, I argue that it takes some of the thought out of it.
Was the gift card created with male shoppers in mind?
I suspect that it will be more popular with men, yes. The cards are easy to get at the last minute–which is something men are known to do, wait until Dec. 24–and they are hassle free. The cards will be increasingly popular with men and with parents who are shopping for teens and tweens who are hard to shop for. Buying for teens probably causes the most angst. The gift card is brilliant for that.
What are some of the other hot items this holiday season?
For guys, it’s still the gadgets and gizmos–especially, the photo phone. Of course, there are problems that come with that, too. If you’re dating a guy with a photo phone, watch out. And for women, it is really the year of the handbag.
For kids?
For kids, it’s the return of many of the toys from our childhood. The Cabbage Patch kids, Strawberry Patch kids, Transformers and Care Bears are back. It really plays into the parents’ own nostalgia. We’ll probably see that build up.
People seem to be increasingly comfortable shopping online. Do you think that trend will continue this season?
Yes, I think so. It didn’t happen overnight the way people had predicted in the 1990s. But it’s happening now. Again, it’s mainly with known goods like books and CDs.
What about apparel? Isn’t it hard to buy clothes without trying them on?
It would be fine to buy a pair of jeans if you knew the brand and how it fit. Now they have the 3-D models. That will be the way the future in buying clothing online. But clothing is always going to be difficult. And a lot of people still don’t have high-speed connection, which makes it hard to see the models. The return rate on clothing bought online is something like 30 percent–it’s very high. It makes sense though. With a computer, the colors are never going to be the same, and you can’t feel it. You want to touch it and see how it fits. Unless the clothes are deeply discounted like on Bluefly, which has done really well.
Outside of online shopping and gift cards, what other shopping trends have you noticed?
Once you get outside of the big flagship stores in New York, you’ll see a lot of the middle-of-the-road stores are struggling. They are being squeezed out by big-box discounters like Wal-Mart and, on the other side, by specialty boutiques with limited-edition merchandise, which is really big now. These middle-of-the-road stores have had to reinvent themselves with shoppertainment. It’s a real extension of what we saw in the 1980s with cineplexes, giving people something to do besides shopping, like shooting basketball, using a climbing wall or other hands-on activities. At the end of the day, it’s always been about getting people into the store. Also, there’s a new generation of shoppers–teens and tweens–who are incredibly influential. All the retailers are after them and they are not satisfied with just going to the mall and buying the same things as everyone else. They are driving the limited-edition trend.
Any advice for holiday shoppers?
Get your shopping done before the 24th and put some thought into your gift. Don’t cop out with a gift card unless you have to. Also don’t buy too much for yourself. That’s the other trap we fall into.
There was a recent survey by InCharge Institute of America that found holiday gift buying is the No. 1 category that American consumers overspend on each year.
It’s hard not to overspend. You are in a situation where you are in a sense being forced to shop. Of course, when you’re out, you’ll see things for yourself, too. Be careful. Limit yourself. Or do your shopping online, if you are really scared.
